# Operation Aegean Sentinel — Situation Brief

**OPLAN reference:** SNMG2-25-OPLAN-031
**Issued:** 08 March 2026, 0600Z
**Classification (demo):** UNCLASSIFIED / RELEASABLE FOR TRAINING
**Authority:** Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2), HQ Northwood, UK

---

## 1. Mission

SNMG2 will conduct persistent maritime surveillance of merchant traffic transiting the Eastern Mediterranean between **34°N 25°E** and **36°N 28°E** ("the Aegean box") from 08 March to 22 March 2026 in order to detect, identify, and report vessels suspected of breaching United Nations Security Council sanctions on the Republic of Eltheria (fictional). Operation **Aegean Sentinel** is non-kinetic; engagement authority is limited to intelligence collection and bridge-to-bridge hail.

## 2. Forces assigned

| Unit | Flag | Role |
|---|---|---|
| FGS *Wernicke* (F260) | DEU | Lead, ESM + organic ScanEagle |
| HMCS *Charlottetown* (FFH 339) | CAN | Boarding-team capable, secondary OSC |
| ITS *Comandante Cigala Fulgosi* (P 490) | ITA | Inshore picket, RHIB boarding |
| TCG *Burgazada* (F-513) | TUR | Surface picket, RHIB boarding |
| HS *Adrias* (F-459) | GRC | Surface picket, HUMINT support |
| Greek NCAGS liaison cell | GRC | Civil shipping coordination |
| AWACS support | NATO | On-call, max 2 sorties/24h |

## 3. Threat / Adversary

Sanctioned shipping is expected to attempt to break sanctions by

- **AIS spoofing** (transmitting MMSI of a deflagged tanker);
- **Going dark** in the Aegean box and lighting up after passage;
- **Flag-of-convenience swaps** at sea (vessel re-papered mid-passage);
- **STS transfers** (ship-to-ship cargo transfer) in international waters approx. **35°15′N 26°45′E**.

No surface-to-surface engagement is expected from sanctioned vessels. Risk of confrontation comes from third-party naval escorts (Eltherian-flagged auxiliaries) and from civil maritime objections to challenge / hail.

## 4. Decision points

- **DP-1** (Sense → Analyse) — when a contact's behaviour meets two or more "suspect indicators" (see § 5), elevate to **track-of-interest** status.
- **DP-2** (Fuse) — when fused INT product (HUMINT + IMINT + AIS history) supports a **medium-confidence assessment**, brief OOD via the meeting flow.
- **DP-3** (Decide) — Commodore retains release authority for *bridge-to-bridge hail* and *visible-presence approach*. Boarding request: refer to NATO HQ.

## 5. Suspect indicators

1. AIS off > 30 minutes inside the Aegean box without weather justification.
2. Course deviation > 15° toward STS rendezvous coordinates.
3. AIS MMSI mismatch with hull markings (visual confirmation by helicopter ISR).
4. Loitering behaviour > 90 minutes at a non-anchorage location.
5. Recent flag change (within 30 days) in Lloyd's IHS Fairplay data.

## 6. ROE summary (demo)

- Bridge-to-bridge hail authorised at OOD discretion.
- No use of force; defensive maneuver only.
- Boarding **requires** higher-HQ release.

## 7. Battle rhythm

| Time (Z) | Activity |
|---|---|
| 0600 | Daily intel brief (CO + OOD + Intel) |
| 0900–1700 | Surveillance shift A |
| 1700–0100 | Surveillance shift B |
| 0100–0900 | Surveillance shift C |
| 1800 | Daily fused-product release to HQ |

**Issued by:** Commodore (NATO OF-6) Halvor Sletten, Commander SNMG2.