# Intelligence Fusion Product — 13 March 2026, 1800Z

**Classification (demo):** UNCLASSIFIED / RELEASABLE FOR TRAINING
**Author:** LtCdr (OF-3) Sofia Konstantinou, J2 Intelligence Officer, SNMG2
**Distribution:** Commodore SNMG2, HQ Northwood (J2/J3), NATO HQ MARCOM (CC)
**OPLAN ref:** SNMG2-25-OPLAN-031 (Operation Aegean Sentinel)

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## Bottom line up front (BLUF)

**Medium-to-high confidence** that *M/V Polaris Star* (IMO 9347182) is preparing a ship-to-ship cargo transfer of crude petroleum at **35°15′N 26°45′E** between **14 March 0400–0900Z** in breach of UNSCR 2683 (2024) sanctions on Eltheria. **Medium confidence** that *M/V Wasilla Trader* (IMO 9421887) is the receiving vessel. Recommend OOD action under DP-2 / DP-3 of OPLAN.

## Fused intelligence picture

This product correlates three independent streams collected over the past 18 hours.

### AIS / surface track (organic SNMG2)

See `02-ais-contact-log.md`. Three contacts flagged. TOI-A and TOI-B both transited the Aegean box with sufficient indicator overlap to elevate. TOI-C downgraded to *contact of routine interest* (single soft indicator after re-acquisition).

### IMINT (NATO AWACS, sortie SE-26-031)

ISR helo flyby on TOI-A at 13 March 0822Z confirms:

- Hull markings read `POLARIS STAR / PANAMA` — but Lloyd's IHS Fairplay records current registry as Palau. Mismatch is a deception indicator.
- Two cargo manifolds rigged starboard side — consistent with imminent STS transfer.
- No fenders deployed yet; rendezvous within 12 hours assessed likely.

ISR flyby on TOI-B at 13 March 0855Z confirms:

- Hull markings `WASILLA TRADER / MONROVIA`, consistent with Lloyd's record (Liberian flag).
- Empty draft (high freeboard) consistent with a receiving vessel role.
- MMSI broadcast 636021118 — not a registered Liberian-issued MMSI per the ITU range table. Spoofed.

### HUMINT (NCAGS, Piraeus port-call agent network)

- Single-source report (Code C-3, **fair reliability / probably true**) that a Greek-Cypriot shipping agent in Limassol filed a notice-of-bunkering for "*Polaris Star*" at the Aegean box coordinates for 14 March, billed to a freight-forwarding entity in Latakia. Limassol filing indicates pre-coordination consistent with a planned STS transfer.

## Pattern-of-life analysis

The two tracks have not previously co-located in our 12-month historical AIS dataset. However, the Eltherian-flagged auxiliary *Vostok-3* (currently anchored off Tartous, Syria) has co-located with both vessels' predecessor tankers within the past 90 days. We assess *Vostok-3* may attempt to enter the Aegean box from the east as part of the receiving operation. **No NATO contact with *Vostok-3* is recommended** unless OOD elevates ROE.

## Confidence statement

- AIS evidence: **HIGH** confidence (organic, technical, time-stamped).
- IMINT corroboration: **HIGH** confidence (two independent helo flybys).
- HUMINT corroboration: **MEDIUM** confidence (single source, C-3 reliability).
- Combined: **MEDIUM-HIGH** confidence in the assessment.

## Recommendation to OOD

1. Position FGS *Wernicke* and HMCS *Charlottetown* to maintain visual contact on both tracks during the assessed rendezvous window (14 March 0400–0900Z).
2. Authorise **bridge-to-bridge hail** on rendezvous to challenge "intentions" and demand AIS-on.
3. Escalate request to NATO HQ MARCOM for **boarding authority** under UNSCR 2683 if hail is refused.
4. Pre-brief Greek NCAGS liaison on civil-shipping deconfliction in the area for the 14 March window.